Real GDP expanded by 9.3% yoy in Q2 2008, coming much above our expectation of 8.5% yoy and market expectations of 7.8%. The real GDP advanced by 8.8% yoy in the first half of the year. The national statistical office would release the GDP detailed figures on 11 September, but most likely we would have more information on 3 September from the Eurostat.

All available data argued for a higher GDP growth rate in the second quarter than in the first quarter (when it stood at 8.2% yoy). For instance, industry, construction, retail sales and real turnover for market services rendered to the population advanced faster in Q2 than in Q1. Most likely, the agriculture had also an important contribution to the GDP growth rate in Q2.

We think that economic activity reached a peak in Q2 and we expect it to decelerate in the coming quarters. However, this should not be reflected in the GDP growth rates for Q3 and Q4, which may remain at a high level because of the large positive contribution stemming from agriculture. Rather, in Q3 and Q4 2008 deceleration in activity should be reflected only in lower growth rates for GDP excluding agriculture. Our current forecast for GDP growth in 2008 is 7.5% but we reckon than the chances for a higher figure (even above 8%) increased.

The very high GDP growth is driven mainly by two volatile components of GDP: agriculture and construction, which are expected to decelerate in 2009. So, we think that the GDP growth in 2009 could be much lower than in 2008, being in our expectations between 5% and 6%.